01

2021

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06

The papermaking chemical market is showing initial potential, and industry enterprises are experiencing good growth

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The market price of compound fertilizers is high, with a slight upward trend, and nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers are also on the rise. Compound fertilizer enterprises are forced to continue raising costs, increase factory quotations or cancel early discounts, with an increase of approximately 30-50 yuan. There is an increase in the phenomenon of high nitrogen fertilizers not being quoted temporarily and being discussed separately.

With the sinking of the high nitrogen fertilizer market, the number of orders waiting to be issued by manufacturers in the early stage has decreased, and the cost and price of raw materials have continued to rise. As a result, the operating rate of enterprises continues to decrease, and more production is needed. Entering the summer fertilizer market, the preparation of fertilizer is coming to an end, and the progress of distributors in stocking is mostly at 80%. Hebei, Shandong, and other regions have entered the final stage, while the Jiangsu market started relatively late and some parts have been slow to sell.

The data shows that the mainstream price of 45% (sulfur based, 15-15-15) composite fertilizer is 2350-2500 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 300-320 yuan year-on-year; The mainstream price of 45% (chloride based, 15-15-15) composite fertilizer is 2100~2250 yuan, an increase of 350~380 yuan year-on-year. The national compound fertilizer operating rate is about 44.71%, a decrease of about 3.5% compared to the previous week and a decrease of about 3% compared to last year. With the continuous consumption of pending orders from manufacturers and the high prices of raw materials, enterprises produce on demand, while some enterprises operate at low loads.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic urea market has been fluctuating and rising, with the mainstream factory price in China increasing to 2300-2400 yuan, and there are currently no signs of stopping the increase in many places. The new round of urea bidding for RCF in India will be concluded on May 25th, with a shipping schedule until June 30th; The export transaction price of large granular urea from Egypt has reached $400. The release of a new round of urea import bidding has pushed up domestic urea prices, but domestic urea prices remain firm in the short term.

At present, the average daily production of urea in China is 158000 tons, and the resumption of plant production is accelerating. Some plants will also undergo maintenance plans in the near future, and it is expected that the daily production will be difficult to increase. The strong external quotation in the sulfur market, concentrated supply of goods in Hong Kong, and the positive trend of downstream phosphate fertilizer give holders a positive attitude towards the market, but the trading atmosphere in Hong Kong is light. At present, the reference price for particles in the Yangtze River market is 1545-1550 yuan. The rise in upstream raw material prices of monoammonium phosphate and the improvement in domestic and international demand support the price increase of enterprises. At present, many pending orders from enterprises can be executed until June, and some enterprises have suspended their quotations. However, downstream market procurement is cautious, with a small amount of goods being sold in the market.

At present, 55% of the powder in central China is priced at 2550-2600 yuan. The diammonium phosphate market is weak and consolidating, with limited domestic sales transactions. The focus of enterprises has shifted to the export market, mainly selling to India, Pakistan, and other places. Some manufacturers' export volume has reached mid to late June. At present, the offshore price of 64% granular ammonium chloride is maintained at 533-536 US dollars, and the domestic factory price of 64% ammonium chloride in Hubei is 3000-3100 yuan. The potassium chloride market remains high and strong, with limited supply of imported potassium from ports and a continuous decline in inventory. Currently, it is less than 2.5 million tons, and the supply is relatively concentrated. Holders are reluctant to sell, and prices have slightly increased. Yingkou Bayuquan Port is in a semi closed state with limited external circulation. There is insufficient follow-up on new sources of potassium for border trade, and orders for May are expected to gradually cross the shore around the latter half of the year. At present, the price of 62% white potassium at ports in East China is 2600 yuan, and the price of 62% white potassium at ports is 2250-2300 yuan.

The potassium sulfate market is at a high level, and Mannheim Enterprise has significant cost pressure. Some manufacturers have reduced production, weak downstream demand, and slow shipping speed. The Guotou Luo potassium plant has been gradually shut down for maintenance, and production is planned to resume in mid September; The production of water and salt system manufacturers in Qinghai is relatively normal, but new orders are not actively traded. At present, 52% of the powder in the North China region of Mannheim has a factory price of 3000-3100 yuan, and 50% of the powder in Qinghai has a station price of 2750-2800 yuan.

Last week, urea, phosphorus fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer increased by 50-100 yuan compared to the beginning of the week, and 460-820 yuan compared to the same period last year; The compound fertilizer increased by about 300-380 yuan compared to the same period last year. Under the continuous increase in costs, it is expected that compound fertilizers will continue to operate at high levels and remain strong in the short term. The high nitrogen fertilizer market has entered the end of fertilizer preparation, and dealers will accelerate their downward distribution speed. Market small orders will follow up, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and the sales situation in the grassroots market in the future